A BTC breakout or bull trap? @ CrappyTrader Notes #2

Hi, welcome to another episode of the CrappyTrader Notes. Todays evening we are going to discuss current BTCUSD situation.

So we have a nice breakout from the trading range that formed on October 21st. The price broke previous ATH levels reaching almost 95k USD price tag.

At this moment we have two major scenarios.

It’s a breakout and we are going up!

Well, the volume looked quite good and the breakout was accompanied by the counting that assumed that we are over correction (August drop to 30kUSD) and a first motive wave is unfolding.

If this is indeed the case the potential for the growth is 83k from the fibonacci extension

and 78k USD from the point and figure count

Ups, it’s a bull trap and we’re going to dive

Well, we need to hold at least two scenarios in head. Just in case the market moves unexpectedly in the opposite direction.

So the alternative interpretation would be that we are still in the expanded flat correction wave. The new ATH is the expanded B wave. So as we reached the top now the C wave down should begin.

This is a bit scary scenario as if this is indeed the expanded flat correction wave then we may expect a sharp downturn reaching 20–30k USD levels.

The positive side of this reasoning is that the C wave is a 5 parts wave so for sure we will have plenty of time to jump in. For instance at 43–45k levels which are taken from the point and figure calculation (this time downward).

Summary

This is very interesting moment. In a following weeks the price and wave structure should become more clear. Wish you being on the proper side of market at this time.

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