BTC Intriguing Charts @ Crappy Trader Notes #11
As BTC approaches levels that were impossible to imagine in December ’21 (which we actually anticipated all the way along) we would like to share with our readers two charts that we find sort of intriguing.
Yes, this article is different. It’s not a macro price action probabilities analysis. We are just sharing our loose thoughts. For those who are waiting for price action analysis and scenario probabilities — please be patient, we will return in no time with another article focused solely on price action analysis and how and when (timing is important) to monetize on incoming reversal.
Intriguing Chart #1
This is a weekly BTC USD chart.
We have placed three, colored price levels and one solid and thick red line — these are the key elements that are about to decide the future of BTC price move.
Here are our thoughts:
- yellow area (35k+ BTCUSD) was recently broken. It is not a good sign as it makes the so called “running flat” correction improbable (see our previous editions for more info on this topic). And this scenario means more pain for bulls as we have already broken this level and price action is still far from slowing down the decline. We expect that this level will be retested as a new resistance area. If the retest fails then further decline is imminent.
- orange area (28k+ BTCUSD) is a natural born candidate for a reversal aka bottom. But consider that reaching 28k also results with breaking a massive double top structure. Have a good look at the thick red line on the picture. There is a rule saying that when double top is broken the profit target equals the height of the pattern. In this particular case this gives us more 50% decline which gives us 17k BTC USD target price.
- red area (19k BTCUSD) is a previous top, breaking this level would invalidate primary wave count. This would be a life changing event as all our long term, multiyear TA calculations would require solid recalculation. Reaching this level is a true game changer and retail investors should be scared as hell.
Intriguing chart #2
Here is a Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) chart published by hoz94@TradingView.
It is a nerve wrecking view as one can have only only two possible explanations/reactions to these charts:
- Besides the fact that DJIA is in a bubble territory it will somehow grow/pump even more, so eventual final fifth wave of the BTC USD price can play out before the stock market collapses. It means that the bubble in stock market should last about two more years (as we would need such timespan to complete current correction and make the final, fifth wave up). This is the … hmmm…. keep calm scenario. Scary but we still have time and probably an ATH for BTCUSD pair before all hell breaks loose.
- Time’s up. We are screwed. The bubble is about to burst. If so then each and every crypto assets will be in a dire straits. Yes, that is including BTC as it follows the stock market in general. This is really scary as the picture on the left is the “Wall Street Crash” in 1929 which was followed by dark ages of the Great Depression.
Summary
It is the second chart that we shared today that makes us uneasy when looking at the current BTC USD correction. It seems that the bottom is near, price action and technical analysis is doing its job -but the dark clouds over the stock market bubble may unveil the black swan that can make our calculations invalid.
So especially today, stay safe & liquid. When times are hard, cash is the king.
More reading
If you want to see how did i come to current predictions i recommend reading previous chapters of the blog. Therefore you can follow my reasoning and see how genuine my remarks are.
- Early April 2022 confession of sins — Got the Details Wrong @ Crappy Trader Notes #10
- Early Mar 2022 failed triangle diagnosis — The Scent of The Bottom @ Crappy Trader Notes #9
- Late Feb 2022 elaboration of most possible bottom scenarios — Bottom Is In Scenarios @ Crappy Trader Notes #8
- Feb 2022 rally debunked — Next station 30k BTCUSD @ Crappy Trader Notes #7
- Jan 2022 bearish scenario explained — BTCUSD Bears Are In Control @ Crappy Trader Notes #6
- Late Dec 2021 strong confirmation of the wave C scenario — BTC Wave C Zoom In @ Crappy Trader Notes #5
- Early Dec 2021 early warning of a possible down turn — BTC Wave C storm is coming? @ CrappyTrader Notes #4
- Late Nov 2021 gloomy outlook on possible bearish scenario — Are we in a C wave? @ CrappyTrader Notes #3
- Nov 2021 having two alternatives on November price movement — A BTC breakout or bull trap? @ CrappyTrader Notes #2
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