BTC Moonvember? @ CrappyTrader Notes #1

Aside from helping Yenten Coin community to grow in my spare time i do try to do some technical analysis on the crypto market.

I’m an amateur and home grown analyst. I use Wyckoff approach along with the Elliot Waves methodology. Such approach gives me the context and breadth for my thinking about the market behaviour.

Well, been thinking where to write my thoughts and struggle — started with a private doc document but decided that it may be also valuable for others like me to see and read how an amateur TA is done and how much pain does it cause.

So here I am, doing my crappy analysis for your eyes only.

And please do remember …. NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE.

The big picture

BTC/USD — where i think we are

Mantra of market investor goes “Trend is your friend”. Today I’ll try to summarize my struggle to find out where in the “big picture” is the BTC market.

My limited knowledge gives me at least a couple of alternative views on the current market position. Hopefully, most of them have common beginning at least. It is the post-3 wave area which is being a little hard for me to understand.

So let’s have a look at scenarios that i find possible.

Cycle perspective

My current working hypothesis is that we are at the wave 5 (aka [V]) of the cycle that started around 2012.

BTC Cycle Perspective

This hypothesis has some interesting consequences — for instance when the wave [V] is completed a cycle correction phase should kick in. Please bear in mind that usually corrections retrace to the wave 4 levels — so in this case after reaching +60k USD prices we may end up at the wave [IV] level which is a range at 3k-16k USD. Yes, hard to imagine and a little mind blowing.

Scenario A — wave IV correction is on its way

In this scenario we are after the A leg of ABC correction. Seems like recent ATH might be the B leg of the correction so we may expect a decline soon.

At the moment this is my current scenario that i use in my trading activities.

Scenario A — wave [V] is almost completed as we are at the wave IV correction

I know that this scenario may sound a little “strange” as the BTC has just recently reached new All Time Highs. Nevertheless, both the P&F counting at the May ATH as well as the wave structure suggests that we may reach 20–30k BTCUSD levels again before the upward wave V starts.

But. This is the most repeated word in my daily routines… But i have doubts. So lets look at alternative scenarios.

Scenario B — wave II correction is unfolding

Ok, there is some similarity in this scenario with scenario A — the main difference is the resulting target of the wave [V]. If this scenario turns out to be real then the target values for the ATH in wave [V] are higher than in scenario A.

Scenario B — plenty of space for BTC to grow as we are at the first correction of the wave [V]

From trading perspective the result is the same as in scenario A — we should expect a substantial move down. When the correction is completed the start of the new, wave III move up is coming which is a great opportunity to invest.

Scenario C — correction wave II is over and we are at the wave III move up

Completely different from previous two bearish positions. In this scenario the correction is over and the new heights are the results of the wave III impulse unfolding.

Or maybe we are in scenario C — up with wave III

Have huge doubts about this scenario — to me current market position is an extended flat correction but as a young TA adept i do remember that multiple scenarios, even those that seems impossible to us, should be considered.

Summary

So to sum up - as always in the Technical Analysis the market will move up or it will move down ;) …. but the nice thing about Elliot waves approach is that soon it all will be revealed. If new ATHs are reached thenprobability of the C scenario increases noticeably. So stay tuned and i’ll update this article as new data arrives.