BTC Moonvember? @ CrappyTrader Notes #1

The big picture

BTC/USD — where i think we are

Cycle perspective

My current working hypothesis is that we are at the wave 5 (aka [V]) of the cycle that started around 2012.

BTC Cycle Perspective

Scenario A — wave IV correction is on its way

In this scenario we are after the A leg of ABC correction. Seems like recent ATH might be the B leg of the correction so we may expect a decline soon.

Scenario A — wave [V] is almost completed as we are at the wave IV correction

Scenario B — wave II correction is unfolding

Ok, there is some similarity in this scenario with scenario A — the main difference is the resulting target of the wave [V]. If this scenario turns out to be real then the target values for the ATH in wave [V] are higher than in scenario A.

Scenario B — plenty of space for BTC to grow as we are at the first correction of the wave [V]

Scenario C — correction wave II is over and we are at the wave III move up

Completely different from previous two bearish positions. In this scenario the correction is over and the new heights are the results of the wave III impulse unfolding.

Or maybe we are in scenario C — up with wave III

Summary

So to sum up - as always in the Technical Analysis the market will move up or it will move down ;) …. but the nice thing about Elliot waves approach is that soon it all will be revealed. If new ATHs are reached thenprobability of the C scenario increases noticeably. So stay tuned and i’ll update this article as new data arrives.

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Yenten Observer

Yenten Observer

Cryptocurrency freak. Freedom, ecology and free market above all.