BTCUSD pair seems to be riding the downtrend storm. In this issue we will use multiple lenses to assess most probable price scenario. So let’s have a closer look at it in a new issue of the @ Crappy Trader Notes.
In the previous issue ( Crappy Trader Notes #4 ) I warned about possible C wave down move for the BTCUSD pair. It seemed more probable than move up continuation. Price data from recent weeks provide strong evidence that the C move is unveiling indeed so bearish future is most probable provided there is no price twist in a near future.
So let’s dive in to the rabbit hole and have a detailed look on the data.
Lense # 1 — most probable wave count
One should expect that the C wave will consist of five subwaves. In my opinion the Nov 10th — Dec 4th price movement was the first wave (W1) in the C five wave sequence. Moreover I see current trading range as corrective wave (W2) so one may expect that the third wave may unveil soon.
Lense #2 — volume behavior
One should expect volume behavior to support the C wave hypothesis. As the C wave should be the impulse wave we may expect that the volume grows on the down move and shrinks on the opposite direction. So take a look at a daily volume data — the pattern is clearly visible there.
Lense #3 — H&S pattern
One final perspective that paints a bearish picture is from a more traditional trading perspective. One possible interpretation of the price pattern is the Head And Shoulder price action. It means that we might be in a right shoulder position. Although I find the right shoulder disputable this is a red flag for sure and an additional argument for a continuation of the bearish scenario.
When confirmed it adds up to the overall bearish future for the BTCUSD pair.
I present three most probable outlooks on the BTCUSD price action that in overall paint a bearish picture. Nothing is for sure, however we’ll see what’s going on in a couple of days — as always.
Trade carefully & stay safe.
Keep liquidity for the best moment to enter long.
If you want to see how did i come to current predictions i recommend reading previous chapters of the blog. Therefore you can follow my reasoning and see how genuine my remarks are.
- Early Dec 2021 early warning of a possible down turn — BTC Wave C storm is coming? @ CrappyTrader Notes #4
- Late Nov 2021 gloomy outlook on possible bearish scenario — Are we in a C wave? @ CrappyTrader Notes #3
- Nov 2021 having two alternatives on November price movement — A BTC breakout or bull trap? @ CrappyTrader Notes #2
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