BTCUSD Bears Are In Control @ Crappy Trader Notes #6
Let’s make it plain and simple — It’s not a dip. It’s a helluva correction. One may say that current BTCUSD pair is in a bear market even. Up to now the most probable scenario that we presented in previous issues is almost 100% correct. So let’s speculate a little more on a most probable future course of the market action and see if we can make it right one more time.
What we know for sure? This is a flat correction. The market also rejected the possibility of the running flat type of correction. So right now we are left with either standard flat correction or the expanded flat correction.
We also know that the C wave is in a full bloom. There is a high probability that we are somewhere between the middle of the wave and the bottom of it.
How possible is a rapid rally at the moment? In our opinion this is a very low probability scenario. We notice that there are many crypto experts claiming that the bottom is in, however our analysis shows that this is a highly improbable statement. Here is a sample of this genre.
Where is the bottom? Plenty of people ask us this question. Here we would like to share some probable and other less probable calculations.
40k? So we do not find the current price level (sub 40k) as a bottom due to fact that both the volume and the price action does not show signs of incoming correction. Don’f fall into optimism on fake rallies. Regardless of the methodology that we use (like Wyckoff turning points, P&F counts, Elliot Wave counts) we get the non bottom result. Sub 40k Bottom In is an extremely unlikely scenario.
30k? We find it very probable for the BTCUSD pair to reach sub 30k level. In our opinion this is a level that will be reached in following weeks and this level should be closely observed for eventual trend reversal signs. We also expect that when entered, this will be a very volatile period even with some extreme climaxes. We find it possible that at this level accumulation, that is a part of a trend reversal, may start.
20k? What is more interesting, we find that the probability of the sub 20k level is increasing. Month ago we considered it as a very low probability scenario but today, after Dec-Jan price action, we increased the probability of this scenario to the probable level. However impossible 16k — 19k BTCUSD levels may sound today, when BTC is traded at 37k level, the current price action and P&F calculations give us reliable hints that sub 20k price level may be hit or at least should be considered as one of the possible scenarios.
Why? How come? It’s so scary.
Indeed! Unless you are a bear and operate on the short side of the market it is a scary market condition. And it will take long time. There are no shortcuts. Such massive correction simply takes time to reach its culmination point and to reverse so be patient and do not rush with long positions too early. Should you go All In today, you will lack liquidity to enter when the proper time comes. And it will come, rest assured.
Of course we may be totally wrong. No one knows the future tides of the market. One can only assess probabilities and act accordingly.
Nevertheless you may and let’s be honest, you should feel uneasy — let us just remind you of our early September 2021 analysis
There is a hope
In a following months we should hit the bottom. Then and only then we will share with you our current analysis of what future BTCUSD price levels may be so you can hop in the wave up. Results of our analytical works might be a surprise for many of our readers. So stay tuned.
If you want to see how did i come to current predictions i recommend reading previous chapters of the blog. Therefore you can follow my reasoning and see how genuine my remarks are.
- Late Dec 2021 strong confirmation of the wave C scenario — BTC Wave C Zoom In @ Crappy Trader Notes #5
- Early Dec 2021 early warning of a possible down turn — BTC Wave C storm is coming? @ CrappyTrader Notes #4
- Late Nov 2021 gloomy outlook on possible bearish scenario — Are we in a C wave? @ CrappyTrader Notes #3
- Nov 2021 having two alternatives on November price movement — A BTC breakout or bull trap? @ CrappyTrader Notes #2
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